April 02, 2004

The Dollar on the Move

As international currency is one of the big possible applications for Financial Cryptography, the way the currencies move makes for an important business backdrop. It's well known that volatility is good for business, and a rising market is good for startups...

In this vein, the prediction that the US Dollar is losing its pole position is starting to show true. James Turk, in goldmoney's Founder's Notes, presents "What Future for the U.S. Dollar?", being discussion by W. Joseph Stroupe of the Central Banks' of Japan and India decision to "ease up in buying dollars."

This signalling away from single-minded support of the dollar, by means of lesser reserves purchasing, will mean their currencies will rise, and their exports to the US will shrink. But it also means that Japan and India will be less vulnerable to the shrink in international value of their reserves, as the dollar moves further down.

This article "US complicit in its own decline", in the Asia Times, by the same author, is much longer and broader, and raises the surprising claim that Russia is manouvering to take an important position in oil supply. To become, it seems, the other Opec. Interesting stuff, which I mostly placed in the "reserved for future evidence" basket.

Posted by iang at April 2, 2004 01:07 PM | TrackBack

I did a little bit of checking on the Russian hardware claims that appeared in the second article linked above. The claims were popularist and lacked accuracy:

"[The] supersonic cruise missile has existed for ages, but it operates at a very high level, plunging down on the target almost vertically - very hard to defend against, hence the F14 with tactical nuclear AAMs targeted against the launch vehicle. A supersonic cruise missile at sea level would in no way be stealthy. Firstly, great power is needed to maintain M2.5 supersonic flight at low altitude, there would be an immense rocket or afterburner plume for all to see. It would also be detectable by the satellites, which have been tracking afterburning aircraft for years. Its skin temperature would also be very high, detectable easily by IR detectors. Aegis class cruisers carry a sea version of Patriot and should be able to deal with a low level supersonic threat."

To which "anon" responded: "There's considerably more to it than you give it credit for: http://www.softwar.net/3m82.html "

No news on this wundertorpedo as yet. But, the speed of sound in water is something like 1400m/s and up, so this would be some piece of kit, travelling underwater at 5 times the speed of your average Boeing.

Which puts the military aspects of the article as "read with care", so only journalistically accurate. I'd guess the same might be true for the rest of it - take with a grain of salt!

Posted by: Iang at April 3, 2004 10:15 AM