Financial Cryptography

Google to do a payments system?

Bob Hettinga points to two articles that report that Google is about to release a payment system modelled on PayPal. This makes sense. They have the user base, they have the Finance Application, and what's more they have a scientific basis that has consistently allowed them to avoid nonsense and hype, almost unique in the field.

I suspect they will give Paypal a run for their money. Paypal was always shaky, always an easy target for a good competitor. The fact that only dumb competitors tried to take them on should not be taken to mean that Paypal are a stable well run company with many feet on the ground.

Where Google will fall short is in the higher layers. Particularly, their regulatory and relationships side is likely to be their archilles heel, that being a reflection of the company as full of geeks that think there isn't a problem that can't be solved by a neat algorithm. They will shine in the lower layers and muddle along in governance and accounting.

I don't think this will shake their eventual success, but it will shake their cosy world views. What is more interesting is what happens when and if Google succeeds. Microsoft will then move in as well and then it will get very interesting. The reason Microsoft aren't in is that they can't afford to antagonise the banks; those with long memories might recall that they made a few choice comments in the mid 90s that caused a few upset lunches. But with Google protecting their flank, there's no force in the argument that the banks don't want competition.

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Also here.

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Google to Offer Payment Service To Compete With eBay's PayPal

The Wall Street Journal

June 17, 2005 7:54 p.m. EDT

By KEVIN J. DELANEY and MYLENE MANGALINDAN
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
June 17, 2005 7:54 p.m.

Google Inc. this year plans to offer an electronic-payment service that could help the Internet-search company diversify its revenue and may heighten competition with eBay Inc.'s PayPal unit, according to people familiar with the matter.

Exact details of the search company's planned service are not known. But the knowledgeable people say it could have similarities with PayPal, which allows consumers to pay for purchases on Web sites by funding electronic-payment accounts from their credit cards or checking accounts. Some consumers like PayPal for the security it offers, since it allows them to share their banking or credit-card numbers only with PayPal without having to divulge the information to merchants.

Spokespeople for Google and PayPal declined to comment.

For Google, Mountain View, Calif., a payment service could represent a significant expansion beyond online advertising, which generated 99% of its $3.2 billion in revenue last year. Online-payment providers typically generate revenue by taking a commission on each transaction.

Depending on the exact details, Google's move could potentially threaten eBay's successful PayPal service, which generated $233.1 million, or 23% of eBay's revenue in the first quarter. PayPal has been widely adopted by buyers and sellers on eBay's auction marketplace as a way to pay for purchases. Recently, eBay has been trying to expand PayPal's presence as a payment system for other Web sites. In the first quarter, 71% of PayPal's revenue came from eBay auctions, the company says.

"It could be a pretty big negative for eBay if it happens," says Safa Rashtchy, Internet analyst at Piper Jaffray. Mr. Rashtchy said he believes Google is also working on a classified-listing service, which also would compete with eBay, San Jose, Calif.

The moves would highlight the growing rivalry between the two Internet companies, even while eBay itself is a big buyer of Google's online ads. For example, many eBay sellers now also sell through their own Web sites, to which they attract shoppers by buying search-related ads on Google.

Google has offered a hint that it might set up an online-payment service. Its Web site says the company will eventually allow consumers to pay to view videos online. But Google to date has not provided any details of any payment-service plans. Google currently accepts credit-card payments for some services, including advertisements and customized research.

Rumors about a new Google payment service escalated following a panel discussion at a Piper Jaffray Internet conference on Thursday. At the conference, Scot Wingo, chief executive of ChannelAdvisor, a Morrisville, N.C. e-commerce consulting firm, said he believed the payment service would be launched soon. In an interview, Mr. Wingo said he based his statement on questions from retailers with which his company works. Mr. Wingo said the retailers have asked him whether ChannelAdvisor would support the service, which some believe goes by the code name Google Wallet.

During the discussion, Patrick Byrne, president of online retailer Overstock.com Inc., recalls saying, "Yes, this Google Wallet sounds like it might be great. But is all this public yet?" In an interview, Mr. Byrne says he has not had any "substantive discussions" with Google about a payment service.

Beyond a possible additional revenue stream, an electronic-payment service could give Google more insight into the effectiveness of its core advertising service. Google might be able to better track whether users who click on search-related advertisements make purchases from the advertiser.

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Google plans pay service to rival PayPal

WSJ Fri Jun 17, 2005 08:42 PM ET

NEW YORK, June 17 (Reuters) - Google Inc. (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research) this year plans to offer an electronic-payment service that could help the Internet-search company diversify its revenue and may heighten competition with eBay Inc.'s (EBAY.O: Quote, Profile, Research) PayPal unit, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

Exact details of the search company's planned service are not known, the report said, but quoted people familiar with the matter as saying it could have similarities with PayPal, which allows consumers to pay for purchases on Web sites by funding electronic-payment accounts from their credit cards or checking accounts.

A Google spokesperson contacted by Reuters declined comment.

For Google, based in Mountain View, Calif., a payment service could represent a significant expansion beyond online advertising, which generated 99 percent of its $3.2 billion in revenue last year, the Journal said. Online-payment providers typically take a commission on each transaction.

Depending on the exact details, Google's move could potentially threaten eBay's successful PayPal service, which generated $233.1 million, or 23 percent of eBay's revenue in the first quarter, the newspaper reported.

Rumors about a new Google payment service escalated following a panel discussion at a Piper Jaffray Internet conference on Thursday, the newspaper said.

At the conference, Scot Wingo, chief executive of ChannelAdvisor, a Morrisville, N.C. e-commerce consulting firm, said he believed the payment service would be launched soon, according to the newspaper.

In an interview, Wingo said he based his statement on questions from retailers with which his company works, according to the Journal.

Wingo said the retailers have asked him whether ChannelAdvisor would support the service, which some believe goes by the code name Google Wallet.

Posted by iang at June 18, 2005 08:01 AM | TrackBack