Comments: USD shift in reserve currency status confirmed - call it 10% per year

Quoting: "What does this mean? Likely that the housing bubble will not burst, or not burst so aggressively. Likely that businesses will find plenty of cash for loans, so they'll be running on infinite credit."

Response: The flood of dollars returning to the U.S. will cause higher dollar prices in commodities, exportable products, consumer products, and in any industrial assets related to production of the same. This will be seen as inflation by the U.S. consumer, and as a falling dollar by foreigners. When inflation runs high, or a currency is falling, interest rates rise because lenders know that inflation or devaluing currency puts them on the losing end of the stick. Lenders won't lend unless they get enough interest to compensate them for expected inflation. Rising interest rates will kill the housing bubble and the bond market. When the bond market goes down, so do stocks. So unless the dollar goes into hyperinflation, we can look forward to a long term bear market cycle of declining prices in stocks, bonds and residential housing. We can look forward to a long term bull market in commodities. Industrial real estate related to the production of U.S. exports will probably continue to rise, because it hasn't been in a speculative bubble as residential housing has, and because foreigners will buy U.S. exports and the whole production chain that produces them.

Posted by Vincent at June 13, 2006 08:57 PM

http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=5349 adds some confirmation:

"There is evidence that the US is attempting to manage the decline by purchasing its own debt. As Asian purchasing of US paper declined last month, the slack was taken up by Caribbean and UK banks that would not normally have the liquidity to make such purchases. Therefore, they are acting for a third party, and the only party that would buy dollars when a loss in value is inevitable is the US Treasury."

Posted by " Dollar on the Edge" at June 23, 2006 06:34 AM

The USD had to go. Too many scumbags playing with it. Now we have oil which has made everyone in the world to pay up which currency attacks could not do.

Posted by Annamalai Sundrasan at June 15, 2008 02:11 AM

The USD had to go. Too many scumbags playing with it. Now we have oil which has made everyone in the world to pay up which currency attacks could not do.

Posted by Annamalai Sundrasan at June 15, 2008 02:11 AM
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