Comments: Our Private Bayesian Rules Engine

I think it's the other way round: More computer programmers have discovered Bayesian learning and similar probability-based techniques. They have been in use in information retrieval for decades, and Paul Graham popularized probabilty-based ideas only *after* these two researchers began working in that area.

Posted by Florian Weimer at January 7, 2006 05:07 PM

An Erlang distribution is a Poisson distribution with an integer h parameter. It is that simple.

Posted by Daniel A. Nagy at January 8, 2006 04:13 AM

From: "An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning

Bayes' Theorem
for the curious and bewildered;
an excruciatingly gentle introduction.

By Eliezer Yudkowsky" link, here ...

Scrolling down a bit, one gets to ...

"Here's a story problem about a situation that doctors often encounter:

1% of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 80% of women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 9.6% of women without breast cancer will also get positive mammographies. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer?

What do you think the answer is? If you haven't encountered this kind of problem before, please take a moment to come up with your own answer before continuing."

The above isn't that intuitive!!!

The author shows how it can be made more intuitive, though, eg by re-phrasing the question and such ... Anyway, the link is well worth the read.

As an aside ... I wanted to reference the following ... but Amazon wouldn't let me cut and paste! (A case of how to lose friends and influence no one?).

Posted by Darren at January 8, 2006 10:01 AM

Andrew Gelman has a critique of the Economist paper in his blog here ...

Posted by Darren at April 19, 2006 05:37 AM
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