Risk analysis, like every other measurement undertaking, reaches some point of diminishing return. In fact, I think we could offer that risk analysis that has to do with "econ" reaches that point more quickly than many other disciplines due to the uncertainties in the measurement factors. That is, precision is unattainable in fin. risk analysis, but accuracy might still be and therefore warrant structured analysis.
I would also argue that, in businesses outside of FinServ, structured risk analysis is performed when the decision maker responsible does a "gut analysis" and decides they want more input. I also believe that an understanding of the right model construct can even help refine that initial gut analysis (a'la the book "Blink").
Finally, there's this whole problem of defining "risk management". But that's a book to write, not a blog post early Sunday AM.
Great writing, really enjoy it!
Posted by Alex at January 25, 2009 08:24 AM