We've all seen the various rumours of digital and electronic attacks carried out over the years by the USA on those countries it targets. Pipelines in Russia, fibre networks in Iraq, etc. And we've all watched the rise of cyber-sabre rattling in Washington DC, for commercial gain.
What is curious is whether there are any limits on this behaviour. Sigint (listening) and espionage are one thing, but outright destruction takes things to a new plane.
Which Stuxnet evidences. Reportedly, it destroyed some 20% or so of the Iranian centrifugal capacity (1, 2). And, the tracks left by Stuxnet were so broad, tantalising and insulting that the anti-virus community felt compelled to investigate and report.
But what do other countries think of this behaviour? Is it isolated? Legal? Does the shoe fit for them as well?
Now comes NATO to opine that the attack was “an act of force”:
The 2009 cyberattack by the U.S. and Israel that crippled Iran’s nuclear program by sabotaging industrial equipment constituted “an act of force” and was likely illegal under international law, according to a manual commissioned by NATO’s cyber defense center in Estonia.
“Acts that kill or injure persons or destroy or damage objects are unambiguously uses of force,” according to “The Tallinn Manual on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Warfare.”
Michael N. Schmitt, the manual’s lead author, told The Washington Times that “according to the U.N. charter, the use of force is prohibited, except in self-defense.”
That's fairly unequivocal. What to make of this? Well, the USA will deny all and seek to downgrade the report.
James A. Lewis, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the researchers were getting ahead of themselves and there had not been enough incidents of cyberconflict yet to develop a sound interpretation of the law in that regard.
“A cyberattack is generally not going to be an act of force. That is why Estonia did not trigger Article 5 in 2007,” he said, referring to the coordinated DDoS attacks that took down the computer networks of banks, government agencies and media outlets in Estonia that were blamed on Russia, or hackers sympathetic to the Russian government.
Cue in all the normal political tricks to call white black and black white. But beyond the normal political bluster and management of the media?
Under the U.N. charter, an armed attack by one state against another triggers international hostilities, entitling the attacked state to use force in self-defense, and marks the start of a conflict to which the laws of war, such as the Geneva Conventions, apply.
What NATO might be suggesting is that if the USA and Israel have cast the first stone, then Iran is entitled to respond. Further, although this conclusion might be more tenuous, if Iran does respond, this is less interesting to alliance partners. Iran would be within its rights:
[The NATO Manual] makes some bold statements regarding retaliatory conduct. According to the manual's authors, it's acceptable to retaliate against cyberattacks with traditional weapons when a state can prove the attack lead to death or severe property damage. It also says that hackers who perpetrate attacks are legitimate targets for a counterstrike.
Not only is Iran justified in targetting the hackers in Israel and USA, NATO allies might not ride to the rescue. Tough words!
Now is probably a good time to remind ourselves what the point of all this is. We enter alliances which say:
Article 5 of the NATO treaty requires member states to aid other members if they come under attack.
Which leads to: Peace. The point of NATO was peace in Europe, and the point of most alliances (even the ones that trigger widespread war such as WWI) is indeed peace in our time, in our place.
One of the key claims of alliances of peace is that we the parties shall not initiate. This is another game theory thing: we would not want to ally with some other country only to discover they had started a war, to which we are now dragged in. So we all mutually commit to not start a war.
And therefore, Stuxnet must be troubling to the many alliance partners. They see peace now in the Middle East. And they see that the USA and Israel have initiated first strike in cyber warfare.
This is no Pearl Harbour scenario. It's not even an anticipatory self-defence, as, bluster and goading aside, no nation that has developed nuclear weapons has ever used them because of the mechanics of MAD - mutually assured destruction. Iran is not stupid, it knows that use of the weapons would result in immediate and full retaliation. It would be the regime's last act. And, as the USA objective is regime change, this is a key factor.
So it is entirely welcome and responsible of NATO -- in whatever guise it sees fit -- to stand up and say, NO, this is not what the alliance is about. And it can't really be any other way.Posted by iang at March 27, 2013 12:33 PM | TrackBack