August 18, 2006

Naming the unnamable, "We have a problem, Houston," who blinks first? and who replaces President Bush?

Crypto-author James Bamford names the unnamable in Time:

James Bamford, a respected author of books on the NSA and a plaintiff in the suit, called Taylor's ruling "very significant, because what you have here is a massive eavesdropping operation, the largest one in history. And it's a criminal statute that the President has violated," with jail terms dictated for violations. "Nobody's talking about impeachment," Bamford added, "but if you had opposite parties in Congress, you'd have a situation, I think, very much like Watergate."

At this stage, we have a situation. "We have a problem, Houston" as the saying goes.

President Bush is a few mistakes away from being charged with a crime, and it looks like a sticky one. Washington DC insiders report that negotiations have been going on all night to find a settlement. Unfortunately the negotiations seem to have been spiked as unamable administration officials have done the unbelievable -- gone to Congress to negotiate changing the law to make the wiretapping legal. (Or, speed up the Specter "everything in the shop" bill.)

The time for changing the law is over; that would be a slap back in the face for the courts. Unfortunately, it is almost certain that the Taylor ruling of yesterday was not done in isolation, and we can expect the Supreme Court to back up Judge Taylor's ruling, especially if she gets badly treated at the hands of the administration.

So we now have the spectre of two of the three arms of power in the US involved in a Mexican standoff. Who blinks first?

There's only one President, and those around him are blinking like there's no tomorrow, because those at the middle layer are far more vulnerable. Judge Taylor agreed to stay the enforcement until 7th September, which might be a blink. There are many courts and many judges, including a feared majority in the Supreme Court.

Time to think the unthinkable. The deeper question is how to see the transition, and one thing is clear: VP Cheney will not easily fill the warm seat. Where Bush goes, Cheney follows.

Which leaves Condalezza Rice. And one mountain of a logistics problem in trying to organise succession. Frankly, I'd not want to be a Republican at the moment.

(Ed's apologies for off-topic crazy-talk post. I should explain that I have seen this story a half dozen times before and I've put it down to Republican panic merchanting. It's just that this time, there's a court and a crime involved... Nexus with FC: the SWIFT breach IMO is the same class of activity.)

Posted by iang at August 18, 2006 12:49 PM | TrackBack
Comments

purely FWIW -- IMO this is all psycho nutjob material, mate :-)

Posted by: Jape! at August 18, 2006 01:53 PM

Ian, I'm afraid you're out of touch with American politics. It was only a district court judge, and legal scholars, sucking up to the new order of things, have roundly criticized her for exercising the old and obsolete habit of being honest and speaking her mind. The Republicans are firmly in control, and have much of the media on their side. Bush can murder and snoop and kidnap as much as he likes and wherever he likes; it doesn't much matter. Right now all the federal lawyers have to do is roll Justice Kennedy or wait for Justice Stevens move on, and the President gets to keep or renew his arbitrary war powers. Check out the Court's votes on Hamdan if you don't believe me. We are in a War on Terror, we are indeed Terrified, and the President (whether Democrat or Republican) has the Caesar's imperium -- arbitrary wartime powers exercised domestically. Say goodbye to democracy in America. Say hello to the new Empire (and one like old Rome's, an imperium with arbitrary dictatorship, not like old Britain's, a constitutional monarchy).

BTW, if you don't want to be punished the next time you travel to America, I'd ditch the true-name blog and start using anonymous remailers. You foreigners are in league with the evil Muslim enemy, according to our right-wing media, especially those of you who provide crypto tools for terrorists.

Posted by: USjestere at August 19, 2006 01:33 AM

Ian, I'm afraid you're out of touch with American politics. The Republicans are firmly in control, and have much of the media on their side. They're not going to lose power in November. Bush can murder and snoop and kidnap as much as he likes and wherever he likes; it doesn't much matter. Right now all the federal lawyers have to do is roll Justice Kennedy or wait for Justice Stevens move on, and the President gets to keep or renew his arbitrary war powers. Check out the votes on Hamdan if you don't believe me. We are in a War on Terror, we are indeed Terrified, and the President (whether Democrat or Republican) has the Caesar's imperium -- arbitrary wartime powers exercised domestically. Say goodbye to democracy in America. Say hello to the new Empire (and one like old Rome's, an imperium with arbitrary dictatorship, not like old Britain's, a constitutional monarchy).

BTW, I'd ditch the true-name blog if you ever plan to travel to America again. Most of you foreigners are in league with the despicable Muslims, according to the right-wing media, especially you crypto and financial people providng crypto and money laundering tools to terrorists.

In order to save freedom, we have to destroy it.

Posted by: USjestere at August 19, 2006 01:39 AM

I fear that your usually sober analysis has become tainted by wishful thinking :-)

Posted by: Felix at August 19, 2006 12:29 PM

Hi Ian,
Looong time no see,M says hello,
problem about the court decision is that the now NSA black project formerly known as "Darpa's TIA"(Total Information Awareness(by the felon always known as Poindexter ) is allowed to keep operating, you would know it as the "datamining" provision in the courts decision.

This is a bigger threat than all the others


regards
gwen

Posted by: gwen hastings at August 22, 2006 04:06 AM
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